Journals 2020

This paper is associated with a video winner of a 2019 American Physical Society's Division of Fluid Dynamics (DFD) Gallery of Fluid Motion Award for work presented at the DFD Gallery of Fluid Motion. The original video is available online at the Gallery of Fluid Motion, https://doi.org/10.1103/APS.DFD.2019.GFM.V0018.

The systematic identification of infected individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, the spread of the disease is mostly quantified by the reported numbers of infections, hospitalisations, recoveries and deaths; these quantities inform epidemiology models that provide forecasts for the spread of the epidemic and guide policy making. The veracity of these forecasts depends on the discrepancy between the numbers of reported, and unreported yet infectious, individuals. We combine Bayesian experimental design with an epidemiology model and propose a methodology for the optimal allocation of limited testing resources in space and time, which maximises the information gain for such unreported infections. The proposed approach is applicable at the onset and spread of the epidemic and can forewarn of a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland; the open source software is, however, readily adaptable to countries around the world. We find that following the proposed methodology can lead to vastly less uncertain predictions for the spread of the disease, thus improving estimates of the effective reproduction number and the future number of unreported infections. This information can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals and for decision-making regarding lockdown measures and the distribution of vaccines.

We examine the efficiency of Recurrent Neural Networks in forecasting the spatiotemporal dynamics of high dimensional and reduced order complex systems using Reservoir Computing (RC) and Backpropagation through time (BPTT) for gated network architectures. We highlight advantages and limitations of each method and discuss their implementation for parallel computing architectures. We quantify the relative prediction accuracy of these algorithms for the long-term forecasting of chaotic systems using as benchmarks the Lorenz-96 and the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (KS) equations. We find that, when the full state dynamics are available for training, RC outperforms BPTT approaches in terms of predictive performance and in capturing of the long-term statistics, while at the same time requiring much less training time. However, in the case of reduced order data, large scale RC models can be unstable and more likely than the BPTT algorithms to diverge. In contrast, RNNs trained via BPTT show superior forecasting abilities and capture well the dynamics of reduced order systems. Furthermore, the present study quantifies for the first time the Lyapunov Spectrum of the KS equation with BPTT, achieving similar accuracy as RC. This study establishes that RNNs are a potent computational framework for the learning and forecasting of complex spatiotemporal systems.

We present data driven kinematic models for the motion of bubbles in high-Re turbulent fluid flows based on recurrent neural networks with long-short term memory enhancements. The models extend empirical relations, such as Maxey-Riley (MR) and its variants, whose applicability is limited when either the bubble size is large or the flow is very complex. The recurrent neural networks are trained on the trajectories of bubbles obtained by Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of the Navier Stokes equations for a two-component incompressible flow model. Long short term memory components exploit the time history of the flow field that the bubbles have encountered along their trajectories and the networks are further augmented by imposing rotational invariance to their structure. We first train and validate the formulated model using DNS data for a turbulent Taylor-Green vortex. Then we examine the model pre- dictive capabilities and its generalization to Reynolds numbers that are different from those of the train- ing data on benchmark problems, including a steady (Hill’s spherical vortex) and an unsteady (Gaussian vortex ring) flow field. We find that the predictions of the developed model are significantly improved compared with those obtained by the MR equation. Our results indicate that data-driven models with history terms are well suited in capturing the trajectories of bubbles in turbulent flows.

We present a particle method for estimating the curvature of interfaces in volume-of-fluid simulations of multiphase flows. The method is well suited for under-resolved interfaces, and it is shown to be more accurate than the parabolic fitting that is employed in such cases. The curvature is computed from the equilibrium positions of particles constrained to circular arcs and attracted to the interface. The pro- posed particle method is combined with the method of height functions at higher resolutions, and it is shown to outperform the current combinations of height functions and parabolic fitting. The algorithm is conceptually simple and straightforward to implement on new and existing software frameworks for multiphase flow simulations thus enhancing their capabilities in challenging flow problems. We evaluate the proposed hybrid method on a number of two- and three-dimensional benchmark flow problems and illustrate its capabilities on simulations of flows involving bubble coalescence and turbulent multiphase flows.

Fish schooling implies an awareness of the swimmers for their companions. In flow mediated environments, in addition to visual cues, pressure and shear sensors on the fish body are critical for providing quantitative information that assists the quantification of proximity to other fish. Here we examine the distribution of sensors on the surface of an artificial swimmer so that it can optimally identify a leading group of swimmers. We employ Bayesian experimental design coupled with numerical simulations of the two-dimensional Navier Stokes equations for multiple self-propelled swimmers. The follower tracks the school using information from its own surface pressure and shear stress. We demonstrate that the optimal sensor distribution of the follower is qualitatively similar to the distribution of neuromasts on fish. Our results show that it is possible to identify accurately the center of mass and the number of the leading swimmers using surface only information.